On angle of the three marketplaces, the genuine value of output value 
of no. 1 marketplace is smaller than the simulated which have the average mistake out of eight.29%, specifically more 5.0% anywhere between 2007 and you can 2009 and most ten.0% anywhere between 2000 and you may 2006. At the same time, the actual worth of the fresh output property value supplementary marketplace is greater than the newest simulated, having the average mistake of five.53%, higher than seven.0% through the 2006-2011, and most ten.0% throughout 2007-2008, showing that industrialization procedure features accelerated significantly during this time period.
Results dos
So it pattern is also seen in regards to producing energy. Generally speaking, the actual output is actually bigger than the fresh new simulated amount, which have the average mistake from eight.6%, specifically anywhere between 2004-2008 and you may 2010-2011 and you will 2015 being higher than ten.0%. While the 1998, energy production has attained the reason for “progress inside the number and make certain have”, weighed against manufacturing from the commercial business. Due to the fact China’s coal resources are plentiful plus the amount of individual coal people is highest, the actual coal returns is much larger than the new artificial. Throughout the 2000-2002 and you will 2013 and you will 2015, the real efficiency surpassed the latest simulated of the 6.9- 9.8%, especially more than 10.0% out-of 2004 to 2012.
Once the condition-had people control petroleum info and you may mining when you look at the China, nothing variation exists anywhere between actual and simulated outputs, with an average mistake out of only one.56%. Gas, another type of types of time within the China, is significantly influenced by national guidelines. The real production try larger than this new artificial, which have an average mistake of 7.33%. On the years of quick monetary progress such as for example 2006 and you will 2011, such as error try 11.0–13.6%. Inside the 2007–2010 it exceeded 15.0%, plus in 2008 it even achieved %. To possess Non-fossil energy production, the actual output is actually smaller compared to this new artificial, which have the average error off step 3.6%, specifically 8.7% reduced last year, appearing that growth of non-traditional energy sources are much less an excellent affirmed. In terms of energy application, the real production is usually larger than the new simulated, with the average error of 6.12%. Except 11.0–15.0% throughout 1998–1999 and you may 5.0% between 2004–2006 and you may 2008, the rest had been less than 5%.
Regarding the perspective of first, secondary, tertiary markets times practices, the entire real usage is bigger than the latest artificial, which have an average mistake out-of eight.04%. Specifically during the rapid economic growth of 1998–1999 and you may 2004–2006, the genuine application try 10.0–% more the new simulated. Even in brand new overall economy out of 2007–08, the true practices is 8.4% more the brand new simulated. Yet not, the real practices are 18.8% less than the new simulated as 2015. China’s manufacturing and you will cost savings features entered a reduced-growth phase, shown because of the Northeast China and you will Shandong Province’s economic credit crunch and you can diminishing times demand. Except that the real usage of 2002 are below % of simulated, the real opportunity consumption of residents in most many years are large than the artificial, having the average mistake regarding 3.81%. With respect to times use (tce), the problems in most decades is within this cuatro%, towards the average error getting 5.19%. New went on development of opportunity from the aspects of residential usage and you can transport is largely consistent with the facts of accelerated urbanization advertised by authorities given that 2000.
The level of urbanization
Around three solution plan issues is actually implemented into system simulation, together with corresponding urbanization peak are found inside Fig. 4(a) and you may Table 5. When it comes to the fresh new AED situation, the full GDP volume increase off 19.eight trillion Yuan inside 2015 so you’re able to 221.step 1 trillion Yuan into the 2050, having a yearly rate of growth from seven.1%. China’s urbanization height will started to 70.0% for the 2035 and you can % in the 2050. But not, economic growth rate tend to impede to reduce energy request drastically throughout the ERC circumstance. By the 2020, GDP rate of growth commonly drop by % versus AED situation. Throughout the years, that it gap continues to expand. Because of the 2050, GDP rate of growth beneath the ERC situation is only % of the AED circumstances. The growth price regarding China’s urbanization usually shed towards the lag off monetary increases even though in such a case circumstances. The new urbanization level tend to arrive at % inside the 2035, and you will % inside the 2050. Underneath the LOD circumstances, non-fossil opportunity growth happens quite a distance to your accelerating new full opportunity also have and you will boosting urbanization and you can financial development. Therefore, compared to the fresh ERC situation, the fresh urbanization level contained in this condition are projected getting % from inside the 2050.